Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts

Saturday, May 28, 2011

GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday: further advance 5/27/2011

Gold5/27/2011 9:43 AM

1 week Trend:  (=)  1 month Trend:  (=)


 GOLD‏ (Spot) intraday: further advance.
 Pivot: 1523.00

Our Preference: LONG positions @ 1530 with 1540 & 1550 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1523 will call for 1514 & 1509.

Comment: the RSI has just broken above a declining trend line.

Trend: ST Range; MT Ltd upside

Key levels Comment

1565** Intraday resistance
1550** Intraday resistance
1540** Intraday resistance
1533 Last
1523** Intraday pivot point
1514** Intraday support
1509** Intraday support



Crude Oil‏ (Jul 11) intraday: the downside prevails.

Pivot: 101.80

Our Preference: SHORT positions below 101.8 with 99.5 & 97.85 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 101.8 will open the way to 103.5 & 105.

Comment: quotes are breaking down their bullish channel.

Trend: ST Range; MT Range

Key levels Comment

105*** Fib retracement (50%)
103.5** Fib projection
101.8** Intraday pivot point
110.5 Last
99.5** Intraday support
97.85** Intraday support
95.8** Intraday support




Friday, May 27, 2011

A Day-Trading Strategy for Crude Oil Futures

The crude oil market can be quite volatile and therefore painful to trade if you don’t have a sound risk-management strategy. However, with volatility also comes opportunity, and day trading crude oil can be both fun and profitable when you’re on the right side of the market and have a solid plan in place. Since the launch of the Globex (electronic) crude oil contract, this market has been a favorite of many for day trading, and there’s even a mini contract if the larger contract is priced out of reach. There are many different strategies one can use to day trade crude oil futures. My personal favorite is using the MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) on a five-minute chart.
The MACD is a technical indicator created by Gerald Appel in the 1960’s. It is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the difference between a fast and slow exponential moving average (EMA) of closing prices. When using this study there are two moving average lines on the chart. One line, typically blue, is the MACD. The MACD line equals the 12-period EMA minus the 26-period EMA. Another line, which is generally red, is the signal line. The signal line is the nine-period EMA.
The signal line acts as a “trigger” to pinpoint when you’d want to buy or sell. As shown in the chart below, when the MACD falls below the signal line, it is a bearish sign, which indicates that it may be time to sell. On the other hand, when the MACD rises above the signal line, the indicator gives a bullish signal, which indicates upward momentum should follow.

I favor this approach for trading crude oil because of the volatility in this market. It’s a great tool that allows traders to be nimble, and helps determine when to reverse your position. In a less volatile market, you are more likely to get “whipsawed” and not be able to execute your strategy properly. This strategy can be applied to longer-term trades but you’d want to use a daily chart, rather than the five-minute chart that I recommend for day trading. You certainly want to use stops when you trade, and can place them at levels appropriate to your own personal risk tolerance. Ideally, you would want to hold your position until you get a sell signal when you are long, or a buy signal when you are short. At that time, you’d then reverse your position. If you aren’t comfortable trading this market, working with a professional can help you determine an appropriate risk-management strategy and trading approach. 

Investor sues oil traders over alleged manipulation


(Reuters) - Two oil traders and their trading firms, already facing regulatory charges of alleged manipulation in the market for crude oil futures, were sued Thursday by a derivatives trader who claims he was harmed by their activities.
The lawsuit comes two days after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued the two traders in its biggest ever oil market manipulation case. The CFTC case against traders James Dyer of Oklahoma's Parnon Energy and Nicholas Wildgoose of Europe-based Arcadia Energy marks an aggressive push by regulators seeking to police the commodities markets.
The derivatives trader, Stephen Ardizzone, filed his own case against the defendants, seeking class-action status on behalf of other investors he claims were also harmed by the alleged market manipulation.
The lawsuit says that Dyer, Wildgoose and their trading firms manipulated derivative financial contract prices for West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange from late 2007 to mid-2008.
"Defendants aggressively exploited their massive physical WTI position to cause artificial prices that unlawfully created profits from their trading positions," the lawsuit said.
The case was filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan, the same court where the CFTC brought its case on Tuesday.
The defendants are familiar names in the U.S. oil market. Dyer and Wildgoose were both traders at BP Plc (BP.L) a decade ago when the British oil company's practices came under scrutiny because of its ownership of oil tanks at the delivery point for U.S. oil futures in Oklahoma.
BP was hit with a record $2.5 million fine by the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2003 for alleged U.S. oil market manipulation, which it paid without admitting any wrongdoing. Neither Dyer nor Wildgoose was accused of misconduct in that case.
In Tuesday's case, the CFTC alleged that Dyer and Wildgoose amassed and sold off of a substantial position in physical crude oil to manipulate futures prices.
Colin Hurley, the chief financial officer of Arcadia, which is affiliated with Parnon, said in a statement Wednesday it plans to fight those charges.
London-based Arcadia, a major global oil trader, and Parnon are both owned by Norwegian tycoon John Fredriksen, known as "Big Wolf" in the shipping industry.
Dyer lives in Brisbane, Australia, while Nicholas Wildgoose lives in Rancho Santa Fe, California, according to Thursday's lawsuit brought by Ardizzone, of Staten Island, New York.
Ardizzone makes claims for manipulation in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act and monopolization in violation of the Sherman Act.
The lawsuit does not specify an amount of damages sought, but Kellie Lerner, an attorney for Ardizzone, said that the estimated damages are in excess of the $50 million that the CFTC says the defendants illegally pocketed from their scheme.
Lerner also said that the potential group of traders harmed by the defendants' actions was likely to be in the thousands.
Ardizzone's case is not yet a class-action. That designation can only be made by a judge, who would decide whether a group of plaintiffs can pursue a case collectively.
The case is Stephen E. Ardizzone v. Parnon Inc et al, U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, No. 11-3600.

TODAYS CRUDE OIL SUPPORT, RESISTANCE AND PIVOT NUMBERS

Crude oil was slightly lower in Wednesday evenings overnight session while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 92.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 95.18. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 92.94. Crude oil pivot point for Thursdays trading is 100.38. 

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Up Marginally Last Week

(RTTNews) - Crude Oil Inventories in the U.S. edged up during the week ended May 20, official data showed Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its weekly crude oil report said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 600,000 barrels to 370.90 million barrels last week, and remain above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

The week before, crude oil inventories were unchanged at 370.30 million barrels.

Meanwhile, total motor gasoline inventories moved up by 3.8 million barrels last week, after increasing by 100,000 barrels in the prior week, but are in the lower limit of the average range.

Late Tuesday, data from the API revealed that U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 860,000 barrels, while gasoline stocks moved up by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended May 20.

Oil refinery inputs averaged 14.8 million barrels per day during the week, which were 494,000 barrels per day above the previous week's average as refineries operated at 86.30 percent of their operable capacity.